Saturday, January 28, 2012

ELECTION #46, 1968. The NASTY-METER is 6.

QUOTE from Richard Nixon after losing the California governor's race in 1962: "I say categorically I have no comtemplation at all of being the candidate for anything in 1964, 1966, 1968, or 1972....Anybody who thinks that I could be a candidate for anything in any year is off his rocker."

The war in Vietnam and the resulting unrest in the nation had President Johnson on the ropes and he decided to hang it up and not run. He made the announcement on March 31, 1968.

The CANDIDATES in 1968.

REPUBLICAN: RICHARD NIXON.

Even though Nixon had told the press in 1962, "You won't have Nixon to kick around anymore" he could not stay away from politics. After seeing Johnson pulverize Goldwater Nixon saw an opening and he seized it. He was looking quite attractive to the moderate Republicans so he started fund-raising; put together a loyal staff, which included H.R. Haldeman, John Erlichman, and John Mitchell; and he found advisors who would help make over his image. He was nominated on the first ballot in August of 1968. But his biggest mistake was choosing Maryland Governor Spiro Agnew as his running mate. He was handsome but not very bright who had far too big a mouth.

DEMOCRAT: HUBERT HUMPHREY.

With Johnson not running there were three candidates who were vying for the nomination: Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota threw his hat in the ring first as an antiwar candidate; after Johnson pulled out Senator Bobby Kennedy threw his hat in the ring as another antiwar candidate; and Johnson's anointed successor was Vice-president Hubert Humphrey. Kennedy was assassinated in Los Angeles after he had won the California primary. At the Chicago convention Humphrey was nominated while protesters rioted in the streets. He chose Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine as his VP running mate.

The CAMPAIGN in 1968.

Nixon surrounded himself with a great group of advisors. Their job was to remake Nixon and keep him from doing stupid stuff. Their plan was: no more debating; no more open press conferences where Nixon could put his foot in his mouth; frequent rests so he wouldn't get exhausted; and scripted TV shows where "ordinary citizens" (all Nixon supporters) lobbed him him easy questions. Nixon started the campaign with a twenty point lead. He had strong support from blue-collar workers. Nixon became the law-and-order candidate of the "Silent Majority" - the country's long-suffering working people who were fed up with hippies and rioting students and blacks and bra-burning feminists.

Humphrey started the campaign being hated by the blue-collar workers and the antiwar protesters. His campaign was short of cash as the Democratic fat cats didn't want to contribute to a lost cause. Nixon was hard to get at - he was isolated in TV studios and flying around the country in his private jet. And Humphrey talked too much. He would put people to sleep when answering questions. One time he took eleven minutes to answer a question - the host muttered off-camera, "What the hell did I ask this guy, I forgot."

By September the race began to tighten. Nixon's vague answers to ending the war and his vagueness on most other issues began to wear badly on a public seeking answers. And third party candidate George Wallace of Alabama was making an impact on Nixon's support. Also, VP candidate Spiro Agnew wasn't much help to Nixon. He was picked because he had been a strong law-and-order governor of Maryland. But his loose mouth wasn't exactly an asset. He made comments like this: On a flight to Hawaii a Japanese reporter was sleeping - Agnew said, "What's wrong with that fat Jap?" And after visiting a ghetto he said, "when you've seen one city slum, you've seen 'em all," And he was an equal opportunity offender - he referred to Polish-Americans as "Polacks." The Democrats used this to make a TV commercial that simply showed the words "SPIRO AGNEW FOR VICE PRESIDENT," followed by thirty seconds of raucous laughter.

Then came the October surprise. On Halloween night President Johnson announced that North Vietnam had agreed to begin peace negotiations if we would quit bombing. Suddenly, Humphrey went ahead in the polls convincing many people that with peace possible let's not change the line of succession. Humphrey's lead didn't hold when South Vietnam President Nguyen Van Thieu said his country would not participate in the peace talks and negotiations broke down. It was unfortunate for Humphrey.

The WINNER was RICHARD NIXON and he became the 37th president of the United States.

Nixon got 31,785,480 popular and 301 electoral.

Humphrey got 31,275,166 popular and 191 electoral.

Nixon had made one of the most extraordinary political comebacks in our history. In his victory speech he said the theme of his administration would be "Bring Us Together."

Friday, January 27, 2012

ELECTION #45, 1964. The NASTY-METER hits 10+.

QUOTE from Lyndon Johnson during the 1964 campaign: "We can't let Goldwater and the Red Chinese both get the bomb at the same time. Then the shit will really hit the fan."

The campaign in 1964 was one of the dirtiest and nastiest campaigns in our history. It ranks right up there with the 1928 campaign between Al Smith and Herbert Hoover. (I personally feel this 1964 race was worse than 1928.)

The CANDIDATES in 1964.

DEMOCRAT: LYNDON JOHNSON.

Johnson had spent twenty years in Congress as a member of the House and as a senator. He knew the ins-and-outs of how Congress worked - in other words he knew how to get things done. Johnson's talkative, folksy, back-slapping Texas manner hid an extraordinary desire for power and an intimate knowledge of how to get it. He chose Hubert Humphrey as his VP mate. (He didn't treat Hunphrey very nice. When he chose Humphrey for VP, he said to him, "If you didn't know you were going to be VP a month ago, you're too dumb to have the office.")

REPUBLICAN: BARRY GOLDWATER.

Goldwater was 55, from Arizona, and the son of a Jewish father and Presbyterian mother, a WWII pilot, had worked in the family's department store, and was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1952. He was ultra-conservative. He made the comment that "Sometimes I think this country would be better off if we could just saw off the Eastern liberal seaboard and let it float out to sea." Republicans like Ike and Nixon didn't agree with this but in 1964 the Republican Party was controlled by untra-conservatives - and Goldwater was the result. His VP choice was William Miller, a complete unknown who was also an ultra-conservative. He was a congressman from upstate New York.

The CAMPAIGN in 1964.

Johnson and the Democratic Party were ready to destroy Goldwater - and they did. What follows is a summary of how they did it.

- Their campaign strategy was to portray Goldwater as "ridiculous and a little scary, trigger-happy, a bomb-thrower.. and to keep the fear of Goldwater as unstable, impulsive, and reckless in the public's mind." Johnson didn't waste any time implementing the strategy.

- At campaign stops he would point to the sky and say that JFK's spirit was "there in heaven
watching us." Who would the martyred JFK, and this audience, like to see in the White House - Johnson or Goldwater?" "Which man's thumb do you want to be close to the button...and which man do you want to reach over and pick up that hotline when they say, 'Moscow calling?'"

- As the campaign heated up Johnson instructed his staff to influence the press in whatever way they could ("reporters are puppets," he told them). One way they did that was to get a financial columnist named Sylvia Porter to write two columns about how a Goldwater victory would be bad for America's economy and would have a huge negative impact on the stock market. Newsweek called him "the fastest gun" and Life Magazine said he was man of "one-sentence solutions." It was reported that a nationwide survey of American psychiatrists found that a sizable percentage thought Goldwater was unfit to serve as president because he suffered from clinical paranoia.

- And Goldwater himself helped Johnson win a landslide victory by making stupid statements like these:
---"Let's lob one into the Kremlin and put it right into the men's room."
---"All men are created equal at the instant of birth...but from then on, that's the end of equality."(Not exactly a good way to get black votes.)
--- And Goldwater struck fear at white Americans' fear of black criminals by saying this: "I don't have to quote the statistics to you. You know. Every wife and mother-yes, every woman and girl knows what I mean." (Is this another way to win black votes? Of course, he didn't have to worry about black votes because most of them couldn't vote in 1964.)
---And then this stupid statement: "You know, I haven't got a really first-class brain."
---Probably the most famous and effective campaign ad was run on September 7, 1964. The TV showed a little blonde girl walking through a field. She stops to pick up a daisy and begins pulling off the petals and counting in a high innocent voice, "1...2...3...4.." As she finishes, a military voice begins a countdown: "10...9...8...7...6.." As the counting reaches zero, the little girl looks up, startled. You stare into her frozen face and ...a huge mushroom cloud explodes, filling the screen. Over the mushroom cloud, Lyndon Johnson's voice says, "
"These are the stakes. To make a world in which all of God's children can live, or to go into the dark. We must love each other, or we must die."The Democrats only paid to air it once, but much to their delight it was run over and over by the networks. Talk about free exposure - and it drove home the message. Perhaps the ad was overkill. Yet no one who saw it could ever forget its stark simplicity.
---Other media dirty tricks pulled by the Johnson team were writing books about Goldwater:
some examples were "Barry Goldwater:Extremist of the Right" and "The Case Against Barry."
Another one was the Goldwater joke book entitled "You Can Die Laughing." and there was a children's coloring book in which kids could color pictures of Goldwater dressed in Ku Klux Klan robes.
Another tactic was to write letters to columnist Ann Landers under the guise of ordinary people who were terrified of Goldwater becoming president.


Goldwater and Repubicans fought back.

The Republcnas weren't afraid to use the media to get their message out.

His campaign produced a vulgar book entitled "A Texan Looks at Lyndon: A Study in Illegitimate Power." The book brought together all the nasty stories about Johnson using a whole bunch of free-swinging slurs. The author said Johnson was guilty of all types of vote buying and sleazy politicking, even worse, he was responsible for the murder of several business associates and even the assassination of JFK. In the first year of its publication, the book supposedly outsold the Bible in the state of Texas.

The National Republican Committee planted numerous newspaper articles wondering how Johnson had amassed a personal fortune of ten to fourteen million dollars during a lifetime of public service.
Republican ads in Western newspapers spread rumors that Johnson had kidney cancer and speculated how long he had to live.
The Opinion Research Poll reported in October that Goldwater was rapidly gaining on Johnson (it wasn't true). It was proved that the Opinion Research Group was a part of Goldwater campaign.

The Goldwater committee made up a fake film group known as "Mothers for a Moral America." They made a film called "Choices", which showed Americans that they had a choice between good and evil. On the good positive side they showed conservative kids having good clean fun with the American flag flying high, the Statue of Liberty gleaming in the sun and Barry Goldwater giving inspiring patriotic speeches.
The bad negative side showed people dancing the TWIST, people reading pornography, women in topless bathing suits, black kids dancing and throwing rocks while rioting, and a speeding Lincoln Continental where the driver was throwing empty beer cans out the window (this was a knock at LBJ who used to throw beer cans out his car window when driving at his ranch in Texas.

The film ended with the question, "Which side would you choose? Tough call? Mothers for a Moral America.

Two conflicting bumper sticker slogans of that time say it all about this 1964 campaign.

GOLDWATER SUPPORTER: "In your heart you know he's right."

JOHNSON SUPPORTER: "In your heart you know he's nuts."


The WINNER was LYNDON JOHNSON and he continued as the 36th president of the United States.

Johnson got 43,129,566 popular and 486 electoral.

Goldwater got 27,178,188 popular and 52 electoral.

Johnson got 61.1% of the vote - the largest percentage win in U.S. history. His 16,000,000 popular vote was the largest up to that time but was surpassed by Nixon's 1972 victory and Reagan's 1984 victory.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

ELECTION # 44, 1960. The NASTY-METER rises to 9.

QUOTE from Tom Wicker: "Nobody knows to this day who the American people really elected in 1960."

The oldsters were out (Eisenhower and Truman) and the youngsters were in (Kennedy and Nixon) in the campaign of 1960. Eisenhower had left office leaving quite a few problems for the next president. Russia had beaten us into outer space, Russia was making threatening noises, Ike had used federal troops to force school integration in Little Rock but did nothing to address the roots of the civil rights, and American military advisors were being sent to country called South Vietnam. The most explosive decade in the twentieth century was about to begin with an election that many feel remains, to this day, too close to call.

The CANDIDATES in 1960.

DEMOCRAT: JOHN F. KENNEDY.

Kennedy was 43, a war hero, son of millionaires, a former congressman and senator, had movie-star good looks, and had a beautiful wife. But he had one big problem - he was Catholic. The last Catholic to run was Al Smith in 1928 and he had been nearly burned at the stake. (see election #36 and you'll see what I mean.)
Kennedy chose Lyndon Johnson of Texas as his VP running mate. Kennedy and Johnson hated each other but Kennedy needed Johnson to carry the South. Why did Johnson accept? These are his words as told to a woman at the convention: "One out of every four presidents has died in office. I'm a gamblin' man, darlin', and this is the only chance I got."

REPUBLICAN: RICHARD NIXON.

Nixon was 47, also a former congressman and senator, VP under Eisenhower, and had had a meteoric rise to the top in the Republican Party just like Kennedy had in the Democratic Party. They both had done it in fourten years - from 1946 to 1960. Nixon had gained quite a reputation as being tough on communism with his work in Congress and with his famous "Kitchen Debate" with Khrushchev in Moscow. Nixon's running mate was UN ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge.

Eisenhower wasn't impressed with Nixon. He had distrusted his VP ever since his famous Checkers Speech in 1952. When Ike was asked if Nixon had participated in any major decisions in his administration, Eisenhower replied, "If you give me a week, I might think of one."

The CAMPAIGN in 1960.

Nixon tried to change his reputation of being devious and underhanded, he created the New Nixon persona of being mellow, mild, and reasonable. But Harry Truman didn't fall for it when he remarked, "If you vote for Nixon, you might go to hell."

Kennedy had his own problems. He appealed to large urban audiences but not to farmers. They were not impressed with his "rich-boy" charm. After talking to a less than enthusiatic group of farmers at the South Dakota state fair he said to an aide, "Well, that's over. Fuck the farmers."

His Catholicism was also a big problem but he was able to defuse it when he went to Houston to address a prominent group of Protestant ministers. He was able to convincingly deny that he had an allegiance to the pope. To Nixon's credit he did not make Kennedy's Catholic faith an issue.

The Democrats actually ran a more negative campaign than the Republicans. One Democratic ad had a glowering picture of Nixon with a caption, "Would You Buy a Used Car from this Man?" Nixon went after Kennedy by hammering away at his lack of experience in foreign affairs and his lack of a really viable agenda for America.

Nixon's biggest mistake was in the first televised debate on September 26. In fairness to Nixon he was fighting off the effect of a debilitating knee infection that occurred after he had banged it on a car door earlier in the campaign. He had just been released from the hospital. Nixon looked strained and tired and exhausted plus he was running a temperature over 100 degrees. Instead
of wearing regular makeup for TV, he insisted on smearing on something called Lazy Shave, a kind of talcum powder that casts his face in a ghostly pallor. The hot TV lights made him sweat and his make-up seemed to be streaking over his five o'clock shadow. On the other hand, Kennedy came across as cool, poised, and confident. Nixon looked so bad that his mother called him and asked if he was ill. The funny thing is that those who listened on the radio thought Nixon won, while those who watched on TV thought Kennedy won. (TV would be the biggest factor in future campaigns and not one of the candidates since 1964 has ever made the same mistake Nixon did.) There were three more debates but it is the first one most people remembered and it was huge factor on election day.

The WINNER was JOHN F. KENNEDY.

Kennedy got 34,226,731 popular and 303 electoral.

Nixon got 34,108,157 popular 219 electoral.

The difference was only 119,450 votes, or less than one-tenth of one percent. It was the closest election since the Benjamin Harrison - Grover Cleveland race in 1888, (By contrast, in 2000, Al Gore would win the popular vote by more than a half-million votes over Geroge Bush, although he lost in the Electoral College.)

The Republican Party claimed voter fraud and wanted some investigating to be done. Earl Mazo, an investigative reporter for the New York Herald Tribune started an investigation on his own. He uncovered some flagrant fraud in Texas and Illinois. Some of his discoveries are below:
- dead people voting
-stolen paper ballots
-phony registering
-ten thousand votes for the Kennedy-Johnson ticket were simply nonexistent
- polling stations reporting thousands more votes than they had registered voters
-cash payments for votes
-pre-primed ballot machines, which would automatically record three votes for every one cast.
-duplicate voting

After publishing four of his articles (He planned on doing twelve of them) Nixon called him in his VP office and asked him to quit doing anymore. Nixon said, "For the sake of national unity, I want you to stop." He did.
Nixon saved the country from a horrible fight over having a recount and the diviseness it would have caused. I still think Nixon felt he got screwed but, in my opinion, he did the right thing for the sake of his country. He would get his revenge in 1968.

ELECTION #43, 1956. The NASTY-METER is 2.

QUOTE from President Eisenhower when waiting for Stevenson to concede the 1956 election: "What in the name of God is the monkey waiting for? he snapped. "Polishing his prose?"

The CANDIDATES in 1956.

REPUBLICAN: DWIGHT EISENHOWER.

Despite President Eisenhower's heart attack in 1955 and intestinal surgery in 1956 Ike was renominated at the Republican Convention on the first ballot. Ike had tried to get rid of Nixon by offering him a cabinet post, but the vice-president refused. To avoid an embarassing public battle, Ike agreed to keep him as a running mate.

DEMOCRAT: ADLAI STEVENSON.

Stevenson wanted another chance at the presidency despite being challenged in the primaries by Estes Kefauver of Tennessee. Stevenson won and picked Kefauver as his running mate.

The CAMPAIGN in 1956.

Stevenson had an even bigger hurdle to overcome in 1956 than he did in 1952. In fact, a Gallup Poll showed that six out of every ten Democrats would accept Eisenhower for their candidate if the Republicans didn't want him for a second term. (Talk about starting a campaign with a handicap.) And twenty major advertising agencies in New York wouldn't even handle the Stevenson campaign for fear of losing their Republican-supporting business clients.

Eisenhower was running on his "four more years of prosperity" theme and it was almost impossible for the Democrats to counter that.

The Democrats hammered away at what they called the part-time presidency of Eisenhower. Their best line was "Defeat part-time Eisenhower and full-time Nixon."

With the good times Americans were experiencing in the 1950s there wasn't any Democrat who was going to defeat Eisenhower in 1956.

The WINNER was DWIGHT EISENHOWER and he continued as our 34th president until January 20, 1961.

Eisenhower got 35,590,472 popular and 457 electoral.

Stevenson got 26,022,752 popular and 73 electoral.

Stevenson went on to becaome a very good ambassador to the U.N. under Kennedy.

The Democrats were looking forward to the 1960 campaign with ambitious senators like Jack Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and Hubert Humphrey making plans for a 1960 run.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

ELECTION #42, 1952. The NASTY-METER Iis 4.

QUOTE from Harry Truman: "I've said many a time that I think the Un-American Activities Committee was the most un-American thing in America."

Truman's second term was dominated by the Korean War and Senator Joseph McCarthy, the Republican senator from Wisconsin. McCarthy was a fire-breathing conservative who accused the Truman Administration of being infiltrated by communists. In the process of his Communist witch hunt he ruined countless careers and lives. He was a loud-mouthed opponent of Truman and constantly repeated his charge that the Democrats were responsible for "twenty years of treason." After twenty years of Democratic rule it was going to be an uphill battle for a Democrat to win, especially when the Republicans nominated a very popular WWII hero.


The CANDIDATES in 1952.

DEMOCRAT: ADLAI STEVENSON.

Stevenson came from a famous Democratic family. His grandfather was VP under Grover Cleveland in 1892 and William Jennings Bryan's running mate in 1900. Adlai himself had been assistant secretary of the navy during WWII and was now governor of Illinois, a populous and important state. And he was Harry Truman's choice to beome the next Democratic president. Stevenson chose Senator John Sparkman of Alabama as his VP running mate.

REPUBLICAN: DWIGHT EISENHOWER.

Eisenhower, known as IKE, had been a brilliant commander-in-chief during WWII and later served as Columbia University's president and a NATO commander. The Republicans had convinced Ike to be their candidate and they had a winner on their hands. He chose a young California senator named Richard Nixon as his VP running mate.

The CAMPAIGN in 1952.

Stevenson had his problems in this campaign. First of all he hesitated over whether or not to accept the Democratic nomination; people saw him as weak and indecisive - not the person to fight Communism and bring the country out of a nasty war in Korea.

Second, this was the first time television would play a big role in a campaign. Stevenson did not do himself a favor when speaking on television. The Democrats would buy thirty minutes of TV time and Stevenson would talk for all thirty minutes and put people to sleep - they simply tuned him out. He spoke in elegant compound sentences which was the wrong thing to do. (We've learned that people like short simple answers.)

Third, Stevenson was divorced and Americans had never voted for a divorced man in the White House. (That would have to wait until Ronald Reagan in 1980.)

Eisenhower's ad men were much wiser when it came to television time. Ben Duffy, his chief ad man, knew that people liked shorter and simpler answers. So he prepared a series of twenty-second spots entitled "Eisenhower Answers the Nation." The cameras would go to a person or a married couple who had a concerned question and Ike would answer in twenty seconds. They were very effective.

But Ike did make mistakes. He was photographed shaking hands with Senator Joseph McCarthy, whom many people of both parties now considered to be a national disgrace. And McCarthy did not help Ike by endorsing him (on TV) and referring to Stevenson as "Alger." Alger Hiss was the convicted State Department spy.

But with the world looking more and more like a dangerous place,(the USSR had just acquired nuclear weapons), the American people were forced to choose between a plain-spoken modern man of action or a long-winded "egghead" who couldn't end a speech on time.

One ugly piece of Republican campaigning was they spread the rumor that Adlai was gay. Stevenson loved women and dated many of them, but that didn't stop the Republicans from spreading the rumor, especially since, as the campaign began, a friend and aide named Bill Blair moved into the Illinois governor's mansion with Stevenson. Truman was so concerned that he sent an aide to Illinois to investigate. The aide reported back that Stevenson was straight. There were even rumors that Stevenson's former wife, Ellen, left him because he was gay. But the divorce had mainly been caused by Stevenson's devotion to his career and lack of attention to her.

The American people were ready for a change. The catchy "I Like Ike" slogan was rampant throughout America and when he said "I shall go to Korea" it was another winner. He was implying that he would stop this unpopular war - and he did - the fighting stopped on July 27, 1953.

The WINNER was DWIGHT EISENHOWER and he became the 34th president of the United States.

Eisenhower got 34,936,234 popular and 442 electoral.

Stevenson got 27,314,992 popular and 89 electoral.

Ike nearly didn't get the nomination at the Republican Convention in July of 1952. The favorite was Senator Robert Taft of Ohio. Eisenhower had decided to run as a Republican in 1952 because Taft was opposed to NATO. As commander of NATO in the previous two years Ike was convinced that NATO was necessary for the survival of a free Europe. Eisenhower announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination in 1952 in an effort to prevent Taft from becoming the nominee. However, the Republican Party bigwigs favored Taft so it was not going to be easy to get the nomination. At the convention, a junior senator from California saved the day for Ike. This senator put pressure on the California delegation, leading them to cast all of their 70 votes for Eisenhower. It saved the day for Ike and he got the nomination. That junior senator was none other than Richard Nixon, who received the VP nod for his deeds. Nixon also balanced the ticket nicely: He was a conservative Republican, while Eisenhower was a moderate. (Oh, how I wish the Republican Party had some Eisenhowers in it today.)

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

ELECTION #41, 1948. The NASTY-METER is 7.

QUOTE from Harry Truman on the journalists who predicted he would lose: "I know every one of these reporters. There isn't one of them who has enough sense to pound sand into a rat hole."

The 1948 saw the most amazing and successful campaign in U.S. history. The man who ran that race was Harry "give-em-hell" Truman. It also saw one of the worst campaigns ever and that was run by Truman's opponent - his name was Thomas E. Dewey.

The CANDIDATES in 1948.

DEMOCRAT: HARRY TRUMAN.

Truman was sixty-four years old in 1948. The Gallup Poll had Truman at 36% in the summer of 1948. It looked bleak for Harry but he had great confidence. He was determined to win this election, even though his mother-in-law had told him he should quit. Truman chose Senator Albert Barkley of Kentucky as his VP.

REPUBLICAN: THOMAS DEWEY.

Dewey had a lot going for him. He was 46 and had already established a national reputation as both an effective crime fighter and governor in NY. Dewey chose liberal Earl Warren, governor of California as his VP.

The CAMPAIGN in 1948.

Some Democratic bigwigs were so disappointed in Truman that they even reached out to General Eisenhower to run for president on the Democratic ticket. But Ike was not ready to run in 1948. Truman got the nomination but he had other problems to face other than Thomas Dewey. At the convention the Democrats split into two other political parties. Henry Wallace, FDR's former VP, formed the Progressive Pary whose platform was based on world peace - it attracted the more liberal elements of the Democratic Party. The third party was the Dixiecrat Party and was formed because Truman was in favor of civil rights.
The Dixiecrats were headed by Governor Strom Thurmond of South of Carolina - Strom and his party were opposed to civil rights reform.

With the Democrats so divided Dewey didn't think there was any way he could lose. Elmo Roper had his poll showing Dewey winning by 44% to 31%. Newsweek Magazine asked 50 political reporters who would win the election - the result was all 50 said Dewey would win. Dewey was so sure he would win that his advisors advised him to say nothing that would get him in trouble and he would win in a walkover. (It was not good advice, it proved to to be fatal.)

Truman refused to let Dewey get away with vagueness. He set out on a whistle-stop train tour of over 31,000 miles and 350 speeches. He attacked Republicans as "gluttons of privilege," "bloodsuckers with Wall Street offices," and "economic tapeworms." Not only was Dewey a target but also the Republican-dominated Congress which had blocked everything he tried to do for America in the previous two years - Harry called them the "do-nothing Congress." He blamed them for not helping stop rising food and housing prices. He had one thing going for him that Dewey didn't - he struck people as authentic. He used words like "damn" and "hell" while Dewey uttered "good gracious" and "oh, Lord." Truman spoke to crowds of thousands in towns big and small and they got bigger and bigger and more and more enthusiastic as the campaign progressed.

Even J. Edgar Hoover tried to help Dewey. Dewey and Hoover were good friends and Hoover was hoping that President Dewey would make him Attorney General. Hoover tried to find incriminating evidence about Truman's personal life that Dewey could use to influence the outcome. The best the FBI could come up with was that Truman was supposedly "soft on communism." The FBI even prepared position papers that Dewey released to the press as if they were written by his staff.

The WINNER was HARRY TRUMAN and he continued as the 33rd president of the U.S.

Truman got 24,179,347 popular and 303 electoral.

Dewey got 21,991,292 popular and 189 electoral.

Thurmond got 1,179,930 popular and 39 electoral.

On election eve in 1948 the Gallup Poll had Dewey winning by 5 points. The Wall Street Journal wrote an article wondering who Dewey's chief advisors would be. One reporter said, "We're going to miss lil' ole Harry." A writer in England wrote an article entitled "A Study in Failure."

Why did Harry win? Dewey said it was probably because of the low turnout, only 51% voted. They might have been swayed by the polls which predicted a sure win for Dewey - so they stayed home and didn't vote.

OR, it was probably because of Harry himself. As the underdog in the fight of his life, he simply went out, threw caution to the wind, and "gave 'em hell." He spoke with passion about what the truth was from his point of view. He liked to tell this story when campaigning in 1948. "In the middle of his speech someone would holler out, 'Give 'em hell, Harry!' Well, I never gave anybody hell - I just told the truth on these fellows and they thought it was hell." People felt he was authentic and they agreed with him - at least 24.1 million of them did -enough to win by over 2 million.

Harry had the last laugh in this tough campaign. On November 2, 1948 Harry went to bed a loser, and on November 3 he woke up a winner. One of the most famous photos in American election history is Truman holding up the Chicago Tribune's front page which said, DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN. Truman had one of the biggest grins on his face that any newly elected president has ever had. (I love to look at that photo and I think I can see Truman thinking, "Take your polls and shove 'em."

Monday, January 23, 2012

ELECTION #40, 1944. The NASTY-METER is 4.

QUOTE from FDR on hearing the news he had been reelected in 1944: "The first twelve years are the hardest."

The CANDIDATES in 1944.

DEMOCRAT: FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT.

If the country had not been at war in 1944 it is almost certain Roosevelt would not have run for a fourth term. He was sixty-two, in bad health suffering from heart disease, blood pressure, and frequent bouts of bronchitis. But he told friends and advisors that he would not stand to see a Republican victory, which would mean a Republican president presiding over what promised to be a powerful post-war era in America. FDR was nominated on the first ballot and the only question was who would be the VP. He dumped Wallace and picked Harry S. Truman, a popular senator from Missouri.

REPUBLICAN: THOMAS E. DEWEY.

The Republicans toyed with getting General MacArthur to run but that was forgotten when it was discovered that the General had written critical letters about FDR, his commander-in-chief, to some members of Congress. Some other MacArthur letters were discovered that he had sent to an ex-Singapore chorus girl who called him "Daddy." That was it for MacArthur so the Republicans nominated Thomas E. Dewey, the forty-two-year-old Governor of New York. Dewey had a record of being an effective governor as well as a great District Attorney. He chose Ohio governor John Bricker as his VP.


The CAMPAIGN in 1944.

This was the first war-time national election the U.S. had had since the Civil War. The Democrats stressed that it would not be wise to change leaders during wartime. They said FDR had done a great job in managing the war effort and had a worldwide status as a great leader.
Because Dewey had a pencil moustache, slim stature, and neatly combed black hair Roosevelt referred to him as the "the little man on the wedding cake."

The Republicans returned fire by saying Roosevelt was a leftist who had become the darling of American communists. And they harped on the "tired old men" in Washington and how they needed to be replaced by young and energetic visionaries like himself. They even went after Fala, Roosevelt's dog. They said FDR, when visiting the Aleutian Islands, had forgotten Fala in the Aleutians and had sent a destroyer to retrieve his dog. They said it showed the president's extravagance but Roosevelt diffused the charges with gentle sarcasm in a nationwide address: "I don't resent attacks and my family doesn't resent attacks, but Fala does resent them...he has not been the same dog since."

The WINNER was FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT and he continued as our nation's 32nd president for another three months - he died on April 12, 1945 from a cerebral hemmorrhage at his presidential retreat in Warm Springs, Georgia.

Roosevelt got 25,612,610 popular and 432 electoral.

Dewey got 22,117,617 popular and 99 electoral.